MS-MR combo better than a MS-RW combo – Prof. Sumanasiri Liyanage

MS-MR combo better than a MS-RW combo – Prof. Sumanasiri Liyanage
Prof. Sumanasiri Liyanage , former Associate Professor at the Department of Economics and Statistics at the University of Peradeniya suggests that a Sirisena -Rajapaksa President/Premier combination would be far more beneficial to the country than the obtaining Ranil-Sirisena combination.
The Parliamentary election will be a contest between the United National Party (UNP) and their allies, and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) as there will be no third or fourth force at play inclusive of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and others, he added.

 

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Ceylontoday, 2015-05-10 02:00:00 Read 463 Times
MS-MR combo better than a MS-RW combo – Prof. Sumanasiri Liyanage

BY a Special Correspondent



Prof. Sumanasiri Liyanage , former Associate Professor at the Department of Economics and Statistics at the University of Peradeniya suggests that a Sirisena -Rajapaksa President/Premier combination would be far more beneficial to the country than the obtaining Ranil-Sirisena combination.
The Parliamentary election will be a contest between the United National Party (UNP) and their allies, and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) as there will be no third or fourth force at play inclusive of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and others, he added.


He adds that the passing of the 19th Amendment has enhanced the powers vested in the Prime Minister.
He also asserted that the SLFP, as confirmed by party Media Spokesman Dilan Perera, will try to defeat the UNP at the next General Election and form an SLFP-led government with United People's Freedom Alliance partners, he observed.
The SLFP seems to have no interest in forming a national government but will instead concentrate fully on a solo victory which they see as a possibility based on the 5.8 million votes polled by Rajapaksa at the January 2015 Presidential election. They are also banking on an additional shift of between 500,000 to 1 million new votes which could help them acquire an absolute majority in the house.


Therefore several options in the form of a Sirisena – Wickremesinghe combine; a Sirisena - Rajapaksa combine and even a Sirisena- Nimal Siripala combine have entered the realm of political speculation, and yet the SLFP may rightfully think that they may not be able to win this election with any other leader other than Rajapaksa at the helm, he suggested.
He felt that any other combination would dilute the potential. Pressure from the lower rungs of the SLFP will press the party into settling this problem of who the party's Prime Ministerial nominee would be, he asserted.
Professor Liyanage also felt confident that even though talks between Sirisena and Rajapaksa were inconclusive they will finally come to an agreement with the help of the SLFP rank and file despite barriers in the form of former President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga and De Silva looming over the prospect.
He then ponders aloud on what combination would be best for the country.

"There will be pressure against the Sirisena -Wickremesinghe combination from the SLFP. The UNP also does not want to share power. With the exception of using Rajapaksa, the possibility of winning with Sirisena leading the campaign compared with the option of using some other person from the SLFP, would be less. This would also be the case should the SLFP not use the powers of the President including Sirisena's popularity. Cabinet Minister of Housing and Samurdhi Sajith Premadasa has stated that the UNP wants to go ahead with Sirisena. Thus Sirisena will have to make a decision. This side or that side? "he asks.
The Sirisena -Wickremesinghe combination has proven unstable during the 100-days programme and this is not very good for the country's development, Prof. Liyanage says.


"Growth has dropped from 7.1% to 6% and by the end of the year it will be around 6.5%. This is primarily due to instability in that no one knows the direction in which the country is headed. Sirisena has to pacify the SLFP while Wickremesinghe has to do the same with the UNP. In the long-term, the parties will fail to come together. When Kumaratunga in the 2000s brought a draft of the Constitution, Wickremesinghe ultimately voted against it. The agreement between Sirisena and Wickremesinghe is not a two-party agreement but an agreement between two individuals. There is inherent instability in a two- party agreement that is not good for democracy. A weak UNP was one of the main reasons why democracy perished under Rajapaksa," he added.
Another factor is that in a Sirisena -Wickremesinghe combination, a post-Parliamentary Election scenario will see that economic policies will be defined by the UNP, he said.


"The UNP will have a very strong neo-liberal policy backed by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank and will bring into the picture characters like former Secretary to the Ministry of Finance R. Paskaralingam and former UNP Chairman Charitha Ratwatte. Sri Lanka cannot be developed by adopting neo-liberalist policies. Sirisena and Rajapaksa make a winnable combination. Sirisena and Rajapaksa, despite various personal animosities, have worked together and therefore conflict within the Party will be less. Their economic policy would be developmental as the State strategy, which is a better economic policy," Prof. Liyanage says.


The foreign policy under Sirisena and Wickremesinghe will become inordinately westernized, he opined.
"As far as the foreign policy is concerned, the government within the 100-day plan patched up with the West. Since 1950 and particularly after Prime Minister Sirima Bandaranaike we have had a Non-aligned policy. This is the best foreign policy which however suffered reverses under Rajapaksa. From a futuristic standpoint, global power is moving away from the West and we therefore need to take this factor into account as it could come to fruition in 20 years. The UNP and the Western alliance is not very good for the country," he said.


Both the SLFP and the UNP have the same issues with regard to fraud and corruption, he noted.
"The UNP has shown within the 100-days programme that it too is not very clear either, as rumours and allegations abounded against Central Bank Governor Arjuna Mahendran, Minister of Finance Ravi Karunanayake and Deputy Minister of Justice Sujeewa Senasinghe," he continued.


Both parties will have to adopt the proposals made by the elections monitoring body" People's Action for Free and Fair Elections' when giving nominations and will have to find new people. Sirisena will have to engage in some face-saving reforms as far as the electoral list is concerned, he explained.


"Maybe he has to remove certain politicians, yet after the election he could dole out other positions to them as compensation. Even from among the constituents, if a very corrupt person plans on contesting, the SLFP and the UNP will have to rethink strategies in giving out nominations," he observed.
Had the individuals drafting the 19th Amendment known that a Sirisena and Rajapaksa combination would come about, they would have included another provision, one that would prevent a two time President from becoming the Prime Minister, Prof. Liyanage surmised.


"What is being envisioned through a Sirisena and Rajapaksa combination is sort of being done in Russia under Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev. Continuity is required in politics. This move however would not be very good as within a Party a second-rank leadership may not arise. In France, former Prime Minister Jacques Chirac became the President. The return of Rajapaksa would also be used by the international community and some non-governmental organizations in support of the UNP at a national level.
The international community and the United States Department of State would take this as a move inimical to the defence of the rights of the Tamils. There will definitely be a power play based on the power configurations in the world. The West excluding Russia will bring up the human rights issue and use it. China will not back the West. India may however take a different path," he opined.


Concerning the issue relating to minority votes becoming the deciding factor, at the next General Election, the North, the East and the South will be three separate entities, he observed.
"The North and the East will vote for the ethnic parties, respectively the Tamil National Alliance in the North and the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress and the likes in the East. The battle is between the SLFP and the UNP to get the majority. Will they rely on the votes of the Tamils and the Muslims? The SLFP will not get more than the UNP in this particular scenario yet it will not be a winning margin and therefore only a simple majority will prevail,"Prof. Liyanage opined.