To dissolve or not to dissolve June 11, 2015, 7:41 pm

To dissolve or not to dissolve

June 11, 2015, 7:41 pm 

Some people who have to go past cemeteries alone at night shout obscenities, claiming that they are not scared of evil spirits. They are the ones who fear ghosts most! Others who do not care two hoots about demons even cut catty-cornered across graveyards without making such noises. Similarly, the MPs, alarmed by the prospect of facing an election soon, put a bold face on it by demanding that Parliament be dissolved. Speaker Chamal Rajapaksa said a mouthful when he cynically observed on Wednesday that both sides of the House were afraid of elections in spite of their rhetoric.

Elections are no fun and most parliamentarians fear them. However, there are a least two politicians who really need a general election without further delay—former President Mahinda Rajapaksa and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe.

If the SLFP succeeds in dislodging the present administration and capturing power in Parliament before the next parliamentary election Rajapaksa’s prime ministerial dream will be shattered; someone else will get that post and another power centre will emerge within the SLFP as an alternative to both Rajapaksa and Sirisena. This is a worrisome proposition for anyone struggling to make a comeback after an ignominious electoral defeat. Unless Parliament is dissolved while the UNP is in power with Wickremesinghe as the PM, Rajapaksa will be without a foil to project himself as the SLFP’s saviour.

Nothing will please PM Wickremesinghe at this juncture more than the dissolution of Parliament in view of the Opposition’s no faith motion against him. It is also advantageous to the UNP to face an election without further delay because the sharp tumble of the rupee against the dollar, rising oil and other import prices etc are presages of economic trouble. But, all signs are that he will have to wait for a few more weeks.

Former President Rajapaksa has said the present government is without a mandate to rule the country. He has thus sought to call the incumbent administration’s legitimacy into question in a bid to justify his campaign against it. Interestingly, when he was in power his opponents accused him of having manipulated Parliament to muster a two-thirds majority to secure the passage of the 18th Amendment which ironically proved to be his undoing though he had not obtained a mandate for changing the Constitution.

Prime Minister Wickremesinghe tells us that the Opposition (read the pro-Mahinda faction of the UPFA) cannot form a government without securing a popular mandate because it was rejected by the people at the Jan. 08 election. He says President Maithripala Sirisena obtained a mandate from the people at the Jan. 06 presidential election to appoint him PM.

The former President should explain why the SLFP decided to hand over the reins of government to the UNP. That move which UPFA heavyweight Vasudeva Nanayakkara has called a fatal mistake had Rajapaksa’s blessings. He made a virtue of necessity. Why didn’t he go flat out to prevent the UNP from grabbing power in Parliament?

President Sirisena’s manifesto did not seek a mandate to change provincial administrations. But, the UNP, which the people rejected at the last PC polls in Uva, toppled the UPFA administration and took over the Uva Provincial Council on the basis that it had mustered a majority. So, how can anyone who approves of that move argue that a popular mandate is a prerequisite for forming a new administration, be it at the periphery or at the centre?

Although Rajapaksa and Wickremesinghe want an election forthwith President Sirisena has promises to keep before he dissolves Parliament. He promised in his manifesto to effect electoral reforms. He is also in cleft stick as regards the no confidence motion against the PM. He will be considered an ingrate if he does not intervene to protect the man who enabled him to realise his presidential dream. But, if he causes the no faith motion to be withdrawn or dissolves Parliament before it is taken up he will antagonise the SLFP further and drive more party members including seniors into the arms of hisbete noire, Rajapaksa. It will be interesting to see how he wriggles out of this double bind.