"The future's not ours to see...Que sera, sera, what will be, will be"
Maithripala Sirisena is the Leader of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP). He is also the Executive President. He leads a UNP majority government with a few SLFPers and members of the previous coalition UPFA.
Ceylontoday, 2015-02-23 02:00:00
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"The future's not ours to see...Que sera, sera, what will be, will be"
By Prasad Gunawardene
Maithripala Sirisena is the Leader of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP). He is also the Executive President. He leads a UNP majority government with a few SLFPers and members of the previous coalition UPFA. The political marriage of Maithri and Ranil forged during the run up to the presidential election looks peculiar now. The JVP and the TNA acted as bridesmates and groomsmen while the SLMC, JHU and other smaller parties were 'flower girls' and 'page boys'. The wedding looked glamorous and colourful of Maithri and Ranil with Chandrika attesting the marriage. As the days have progressed, the 'marriage' seems to be turning 'sour' with Maithri experiencing problems from his SLFP family which he has kept in the Opposition in Parliament. Already the TNA has put forward their demands. The JVP is unhappy over the lethargic attitude to bring those responsible for corruption to book.
Maithri's house is not in order. There are more opposing views than supporting views towards Maithri's future plans. His party members appear to be fearlessly flouting discipline and debating his decisions. They are hurt that they are being kept in the Opposition in a UPFA majority Parliament by their party leader. Never in the annals of post independence politics, had a majority coalition been pushed to sit in the Opposition. This situation has now put the Maithri-Ranil marriage in danger. Maithri's SLFP MPs and members of the UPFA coalition hold the key to Maithri's marriage with Ranil. They have the majority to crack that marriage. Susil Premajayantha and Nimal Siripala de Silva say they would ensure the establishment of a SLFP Government after the next general election. They said the mammoth crowd witnessed at Nugegoda last Wednesday at a UPFA meeting led by Wimal, Vasu, Dinesh and Udaya was a positive signal towards that dream. Nimal has a dream to be the next Prime Minister. But Wimal, Vasu, Dinesh and Udaya want Mahinda Rajapaksa to return as the next Prime Minister candidate.
Now the marriage of Maithri and Ranil has turned into a 'love - hate relationship'. Ranil virtually controls the powers of most ministries. That had led to many problems. Faiszer Musthapha has already resigned his portfolio and Rajiva is likely to follow. A news report stated yesterday that SLFP ministers were to gang up against Ranil. If that happens, it means more problems at home for Maithri. The pressure that is being mounted on Maithri from the SLFP indicates he has not much control over his members as they sit in the Opposition. It was Maithri himself who pushed them to the Opposition to marry the UNP to win the presidential election. The proposal to bring Maithri and Ranil together was done in a hurry and both of them had not much time to understand each other. Before they had time to 'agree to disagree' or 'disagree to agree', the proposal was finalized in secrecy by the attesting witness who earlier played the role of a Magul Kapuwa.
With the passage of time, now it appears that the house is on fire with more disagreements than agreements surfacing by the day. Like in any other marriage, power sharing creates issues. In this marriage, Maithri agreed to hand over more powers to Ranil and keep a few with him. But even before that is done, Ranil's cousin Ruwan Wijewardene overstepped the line to exercise the defence powers of Maithri. Ruwan went to the North, visited military camps, made sensational comments on security matters. This annoyed Maithri and he clipped Ruwan's wings even without consulting Ranil. Ruwan finally lost 10 of his 14 subjects. Last week, Shiral Laktilleke planned a media campaign to promote electoral reforms. Ranil was annoyed. He urged Maithri to instruct Shiral to stop it. Maithri disagreed stating electoral reforms were an election pledge. Ranil had no option but to keep quiet.
Electoral reforms have created another problem for Maithri within his own SLFP house. His MPs say that electoral reforms too should accompany the 19th Amendment, if they are to vote in favour. Maithri's MPs in the Opposition know that Ranil is J.R. Jayewardene's nephew. JR was known as the 'old fox' in politics and the SLFPers know that Ranil is a 'fox and a half' in today's politics. Ranil is a politician who buys time and awaits the moment. He can mend any hole in a bucket even with a straw. If the 19th Amendment is passed in the House without electoral reforms, Ranil as Prime Minister enjoys more powers than the President. The SLFPers in the Opposition are aware that the present PR system of elections will certainly favour the UNP at a general election at a time the SLFP looks divided. Hence, they demand that the electoral reforms should accompany the 19th Amendment if Maithri and Ranil want their support.
This current development is very tricky. Will Maithri put his SLFP before his marriage with Ranil? The marriage is already experiencing a few cracks due to disagreements. The Magul Kapuwa turned attesting witness is not much seen in the scene to mend fences between the couple. Former first citizen Mahinda is closely watching these developments in retirement. He is still a charismatic politician admired by 5.8 million voters at the last presidential election. His charming smile can convince many more voters. Maithri sports an innocent smile that is difficult to market in politics. Ranil's mischievous smile speaks a million words but that cannot buy rural votes. For him to attract the rural vote, he has to sell the sincere political smile of Sajith Premadasa to the rural folk. Urban based smiles are hated by rural masses as they've been cheated for decades. Though the SLFP Opposition is in a hurry, Mahinda knows when to make judgement. He knows how to scheme, if he wants to continue in politics. Can Ranil halt Mahinda if the latter decides to make a return to active politics? Even at 69, Mahinda can physically run faster than Maithri and Ranil.
In politics, there are no political leaders who have not faced allegations of corruption. But those have not been proved in post independence politics. Mahinda is strong in the country's South. He is a man who does not jump the ship when seas are rough. At a future general election, the minorities will look after their own interests. They will work hard to get more representation in the next Parliament. If Ranil is going to look after the interests of his UNP at the next general election, what will Maithri do? Will he put the SLFP before his marriage with Ranil? It's a known fact that political marriages end up in early divorce when it comes to elections. It's a matter of time. All these parties have to go before the people soon.
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